Decision tool · cost layer
The Money, Apparently
See advertised vs mandatory vs likely vs friction before you call a package cheap.
Active scenario
San Juan ferry + lodging weekend
San Juan Islands, WA
Source: Illustrative package
Source: WSF pattern — replace with current fare
Composition
Where the money goes
Share of all-in with friction by layer — not a decorative chart.
Per person · likely
$404
Per person · +friction
$459
Per night · likely
$808
Per person-night
$202
| Layer | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Advertised | $900 | 49% |
| Mandatory | $300 | 16% |
| Likely | $415 | 23% |
| Friction | $220 | 12% |
Decision support
What if party, nights, or rates change
Same line items, different scale and shocks. Does not rewrite your stack.
Scaling mix: 100% fixed · 0% scales — Most of this stack is fixed totals — party/night tables will look flat. Convert meals or fees to scaling units if they should move.
Party size
| Party | All-in +fric | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | $1,835 | — |
| 4 · active | $1,835 | — |
| 5 | $1,835 | — |
| 6 | $1,835 | — |
Nights
| Nights | All-in +fric | Δ |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1,835 | — |
| 2 · active | $1,835 | — |
| 3 | $1,835 | — |
| 4 | $1,835 | — |
Rate & friction shocks
Hypotheticals only — observation → implication → action for each lever.
Lodging +15%Peak or last-minute room rate
+$135→ $1,970
Lodging +15%: all-in with friction $1,970 (Δ +$135).
Implies: Decision number rises; confirm the trip is still viable at this level.
Next: Replace lodging with a dated quote before treating either shock as fact.
Lodging −10%Shoulder or promo rate
-$90→ $1,745
Lodging −10%: all-in with friction $1,745 (Δ -$90).
Implies: Lower total is only honest if the underlying rate is real, not aspirational.
Next: Replace lodging with a dated quote before treating either shock as fact.
Mandatory +20%Fare band, tax, or peak surcharge
+$60→ $1,895
Mandatory +20%: all-in with friction $1,895 (Δ +$60).
Implies: Decision number rises; confirm the trip is still viable at this level.
Next: Stress-test Fit Audit against the higher all-in before deposits stick.
Friction ×2Two recovery modes at once
+$220→ $2,055
Friction ×2: all-in with friction $2,055 (Δ +$220).
Implies: If double friction still fits the budget, resilience is funded; if not, the plan is brittle.
Next: Stress-test Fit Audit against the higher all-in before deposits stick.
Friction zeroedWhat the spreadsheet looks like without resilience
-$220→ $1,615
Friction zeroed: all-in with friction $1,615 (Δ -$220).
Implies: Zero friction is a spreadsheet fantasy unless return timing is fully flexible and recovery is free.
Next: Only zero friction deliberately — with flexible dates written down.
Meals +25%Resort / coast premium dining
+$70→ $1,905
Meals +25%: all-in with friction $1,905 (Δ +$70).
Implies: Decision number rises; confirm the trip is still viable at this level.
Next: Stress-test Fit Audit against the higher all-in before deposits stick.
Compared with what
Scenario comparison
One-click pairs load the left stack and set the right. Or pick any library scenario below.
Victoria FX
Montana
Ferry corridors
Parks
West road & resort
| Metric | Active | Compare | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | San Juan ferry + lodging weekend | Multigenerational San Juan coastal | — |
| Party · nights | 4 · 2 | 6 · 3 | — |
| Advertised | $900 | $1,450 | -$550 |
| All-in likely | $1,615 | $2,720 | -$1,105 |
| With friction | $1,835 | $3,035 | -$1,200 |
| Uplift vs advertised | +104% | +109% | -5 pts |
Library
Load another scenario
Show
Library
Load another scenario
Scenario library
One-click stacks
Live-style fare lookup
Washington State Ferries
Curated public fare table for San Juan routes. Not an automatic API — each refresh stamps a client timestamp and links the official source.
No fare table loaded yet. Fetch to inspect official reference rates and push one into your stack.
Decision system
Fit Audit · Plans May Vary
Live handoff from the money stack — findings compound across tools, not separate dead pages.
Fit Audit (live)
Open full →Constraint matching from cost visibility — not a vanity score.
- Budget honestyconflict
Promotional headline understates realistic all-in cost.
Next: Restate the trip budget at all-in with friction before comparing options.
- Total-cost visibilityconditional fit
Stack separates advertised from mandatory/likely.
Next: Keep mandatory lines quote-backed; likely lines plan-backed.
- Disruption resilienceconditional fit
Friction buffer present; still confirm recovery lodging.
Next: If return is fixed, pre-identify one recovery hotel and cancellation terms.
- Transfer burdenconfirmation required
Ferry or sailing lines present — vehicle/seat reservation both ways remains a confirmation task.
Next: Reserve both directions before lodging deposits become sticky.
- Timing fragilityconfirmation required
Fixed return flights past fragile sailings or park gates need a recovery plan.
Next: Write the latest acceptable arrival at the gateway and one backup night.
- Evidence freshnessconfirmation required
Multiple lines lack sources — quotes may be stale or illustrative.
Next: Stamp mandatory lines with operator + date before a go decision.
- Park entry honestyconflict
Park-shaped region without entrance lines understates mandatory cost.
Next: Add vehicle or per-person entrance before treating Fit as decisive.
Plans May Vary (live)
Open full →Disruption readiness tied to your friction buffer ($220).
- Reserve vehicle or seats both directions before lodging is stickyStandby is entertainment, not a plan — especially peak weekends.When: Before paying non-refundable lodging deposits
- Budget a recovery night at the gatewayFriction buffer currently $220 — name a hotel and amount, not a hope.When: Before booking non-flexible returns
- Arrive earlier than brochure photography suggestsQueues, full lots, and load priority eat schedule margin.When: Day-of plan
- Keep claims evidence posture readyScreenshots of cancellations, boarding passes, and rebooking receipts live with Plans May Vary.When: Any disruption
- Re-check operator terms for San Juan Islands, WAThis tool models cost; carrier and park terms control recovery rights.When: Before final payment
Layer decision framework (why four layers exist)
Separate before you judge
Never decide on a trip using only the advertised figure. Advertised is marketing; mandatory is commitment; likely is how you actually live; friction is how systems fail.
Quote mandatory before deposits stick
Ferry, park entry, taxes, and terminal access should be operator-dated before non-refundable lodging locks. If mandatory is empty, you are still shopping a headline.
When: Before paying non-refundable deposits
Name friction or admit you are gambling
A recovery night without a hotel name and amount is not a plan. Flexible dates can thin the buffer; fixed returns cannot.
When: When return flights or work starts are fixed
Share per-person with friction
Multigen and cost-share conversations die on package headlines. Use all-in with friction ÷ party so nobody is surprised at the dock.
Compare pairs, not single numbers
Baseline vs stressed FX, Butte vs Glacier, prepaid vs spot — the useful delta is the one that still leaves the trip viable when both rate and fare move against you.
Advanced
Constraints · import · handoff
Toggle
Advanced
Constraints · import · handoff
Decision system
Shared constraint object
Portable v1.0 payload for Fit Audit and Plans May Vary. Export JSON or copy constraints from the totals panel to hand off cost visibility, friction, and next actions.
- Scenario
- San Juan ferry + lodging weekend
- Party / nights
- 4 / 2
- All-in with friction
- $1,835
- Flags
- high_uplift_vs_advertised, thin_source_coverage, ferry_leg_present
{
"version": "1.0",
"tool": "the-money-apparently",
"scenarioId": "tc-ferry-lodging-package-001",
"totals": {
"advertised": 900,
"mandatory": 300,
"likelyExtras": 415,
"frictionBuffer": 220,
"allInLikely": 1615,
"allInWithFriction": 1835,
"upliftLikelyPct": 79,
"upliftFrictionPct": 104
},
"costVisibility": "full",
"frictionExposure": "medium",
"budgetConfidence": "medium",
"flags": [
"high_uplift_vs_advertised",
"thin_source_coverage",
"ferry_leg_present"
],
"nextActions": [
"Replace illustrative amounts with your real lodging quote and current transport fare.",
"If friction feels optional, re-check return flight/sailing time and reserve a mainland recovery option.",
"Stamp mandatory lines with operator + quote date before a go decision.",
"Pass this constraint object into Fit Audit and Plans May Vary."
]
}Revisit · restore
Import stack
Paste or upload a JSON export from this tool. Figures become the active workspace.